The IPGRI SSA strategy identifies the major environmental and social trends that can influence PGR conservation and management into the future. Some of these trends may have positive impacts on genetic diversity, while others may have negative impacts. They therefore come with new challenges and opportunities that should be taken into consideration in the development of plans for work in PGR conservation and use in the region.

Effects of population growth

The high rate of population growth in Africa is likely to continue, although at reduced rates. High populations will continue to put a strain on food security and poverty alleviation. There will also be continuing land clearing and deforestation that could threaten genetic diversity and lead to species loss.

The focus on high-yielding crops to satisfy food needs for the ever-increasing population, could also threaten genetic diversity as indigenous crops give way to improved varieties.

Effects of climate change

Among anticipated changes, perhaps some of the most significant are related to climate change. The global warming and greenhouse gasses phenomena, among others, are changing the environment in which plants and other living organisms live and grow.

Genetic resources in long-term storage in genebanks could find a changed environment when they are finally brought back into cultivation.

There would be increased need for regeneration of genebank materials to ensure adequate evolutionary transformation of the materials.

The value of in situ conservation will be enhanced as a means of ensuring that conservation and environmental transformation go hand in hand.

Changing climates could affect genetic diversity in species and genepools, especially in the drier environments.

Human nutrition and health

The growing pandemic of HIV/AIDS on the continent will negatively affect human health and labour availability for agriculture and other jobs. The search for remedies and cures for HIV/AIDS-related conditions will continue. The exploitation of plant genetic resources will be an integral part in this search.

 Major emphases in PGR conservation and use will include:

Promotion of indigenous plant species with high nutritional value, e.g. the African leafy vegetables

More emphasis on medicinal plants (including medicinal trees).

Scientific and technical environment

There are major technological advances foreseen in the global environment. The dramatic developments in biotechnology of the past few years are expected to influence the conservation and use of plant genetic resources, with both positive and negative implications.

Sub-Saharan Africa is lagging behind in most of these technological advances: biotechnology, conservation science, and information management. There are opportunities and challenges for PGR work in sub-Saharan Africa with respect to these technological advances.

Institutional and political factors

A variety of institutional and political factors and trends could influence the future of plant genetic resources in the continent. Some of these are:

The growing significance of sub-regional organizations (SROs) as umbrella organizations, providing guidance, support and collaboration among national agricultural research institutions, for strengthening agricultural research in the regions. SROs could provide potential avenues for strengthening PGR conservation in the context of agriculture and natural resources management in respective sub-regions.

Instability in some government policies with respect to plant genetic resources, leading to differences across countries in genetic resources policies and lack of fit with regional and international discussions.

General state of insecurity, political instabilities and wars – could destroy what has been achieved already, hinder implementation of planned activities and also lead to change of emphasis of interventions.

Expected restructuring of the CGIAR and the on-going deliberations on the CG Strategy on sub-Saharan Africa could lead to changes in collaboration and co-ordination of PGR activities within the continent.